Energy Futures

Welcome to the Energy Futures Research Program

An Energy Modeling and Analysis Program of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis

Upcoming Events

STEPS+ Spring Symposium Postponed to July, ITS-Davis at Asilomar

Jul 15, 2025

Energy Futures & Sustainable Freight Summer Deep Dive at Asilomar

Jul 15, 2025

Asilomar Conference Grounds, Kiln Room, 800 Asilomar Ave, Pacific Grove, CA

STEPS+ Fall Symposium 2025

Nov 19-20, 2025

UC Davis Activities and Recreation Center (ARC)

More Events

Latest News

ITS-Davis Blog: Tariffs, Transitions, and Trade: Mexico’s EV Gambit

by Francisco Pares Olguin and Roland Hwang
May 02, 2025

The North American automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by the electric vehicle (EV) transition, post-pandemic supply chain shifts, and increasing US protectionism. As the largest vehicle supplier to the US, Mexico faces both opportunities and risks in this evolving landscape. With 42% of its passenger vehicle production tied to US automakers and nearly 70% of its total output destined for the US, Mexico’s automotive industry is particularly vulnerable to the recently announced 25% tariffs on Mexican auto imports.

California backs out of clean truck and train regulations ahead of Trump administration

by The Sacramento Bee
January 17, 2025

“Daniel Sperling, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis and former CARB member, said the Advanced Clean Fleets rule was intended to facilitate the transition but ultimately became unnecessary and politically problematic.” Read more here...

California Drives Toward Electric Future

by Ula Chrobak, UC Davis Magazine
May 22, 2024

The pressure is on for California to meet its clean-vehicle goals. In less than two years, 35% of vehicles sold must have zero tailpipe emissions. And by 2035, all light-duty vehicles sold must be zero emissions.

USDOT awards $1.7 million in research funding to UC-Davis for Climate Change and Transportation Research Center

by Mass Transit
May 14, 2024

City illustration with cars and buildings

Blog: Electrifying Transportation and Shifting Travel Patterns can Cut CO2 while Saving the US Trillions of Dollars

by Lew Fulton
March 11, 2024

Widespread adoption of electric vehicles—combined with a shift in travel modes towards more walking, cycling, and transit use—can help ease the climate crisis, improve quality of life, and save Americans money. A key to shifting travel modes to less automobile use is making biking, walking, and transit safer and more convenient by redirecting infrastructure investments and making urban areas more compact.

ITS-Davis students and researchers to participate in nearly 70 sessions at TRB 2024

January 09, 2024

The TRB 103rd Annual Meeting will be held in Washington, DC from January 7th through 11th, 2024. Many ITS-Davis representatives will be participating in the meetings, sessions, and exhibits. Their presentations with session number, title, date, time, presentation topics, and authors are listed here: ITS-Davis at TRB 2024.

Blog: As Countries Set Ambitious Targets for Electric Vehicle Sales, More International Trade and Domestic Investment Is Needed

by Hong Yang and Lew Fulton
December 22, 2023

In an effort to curb emissions, governments in major vehicle markets are proposing and adopting requirements that electric vehicles (EVs) make up a certain percentage of new vehicle sales in coming years. This week the Government of Canada announced EV sales targets of 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035 for light-duty vehicles, similar to the goals the United States announced last year of 50% by 2030 and 67% by 2032.

Blog: Putting the Brakes on Global Growth in SUVs Would Curb Emissions, Improve Safety, Reduce Critical Mineral Use, and Address Inequities

by Pierpaolo Cazzola
December 09, 2023

On the path to global transportation sustainability, electric vehicles (EVs) are making inroads, but larger cars with bigger carbon footprints are hampering climate progress. The right policies can correct our course.

Transportation and Climate Blog: Making Policy in the Absence of Certainty: Biofuels and Land Use Change

by by Colin Murphy, UC Davis Policy Institute, STEPS+ Energy Futures
October 30, 2023

Biofuels are an important tool to help decarbonize our transportation system, and their role will likely grow in coming years. New tax credits authorized under the Inflation Reduction Act are being finalized; these would offer significant incentives for the biofuel alternatives to conventional jet fuel, so-called “Sustainable Aviation Fuels” or SAF. But it’s not always clear how sustainable these fuels truly are, or whether they offer a significant GHG advantage over petroleum.

NCST Webinar: Insights from the New End of Life EV Battery Policy Simulator

September 18, 2023

Watch recording here: https://youtu.be/TxjJXaTa2fA 

Transportation and Climate Blog: Supporting California’s Move to Zero-Emission Vehicles by Creating a Viable, Large-Scale Fuel-Cell Vehicle and Hydrogen System

by Lew Fulton
June 14, 2023

California is marching ahead with firm rules now in place for both light-duty and medium/heavy-duty vehicles to transition to zero emission stock by 2045. The State is requiring that all new vehicles sold from 2035 onward be “zero-emission vehicles” (ZEVs)—battery electric, plug-in hybrid, or hydrogen-powered fuel-cell vehicles. While battery electric vehicles currently dominate ZEV sales and discussions of the zero-emissions future, fuel-cell vehicles are expected to play a key role, especially in truck and bus fleets and some households.

Blog: Cutting US road sector GHG emissions by 90% or more by 2050 takes both ZEVs and low-carbon fuels

by Lewis Fulton, Marshall Miller, and Qian Wang
April 30, 2023

Big reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector are needed to limit the magnitude of climate change impacts. Understanding what kinds of policy and market dynamics are at play can help us meet national goals. Our recent study shows that there is an interplay between policy, vehicle types, and fuel sources, and that early investment in zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) could yield big savings and big reductions in GHG emissions, by 2050. Low-carbon fuels for non-electric vehicles will also need to play an important role.

Powering Zero Emission Transitions: ITS-Davis Launches California-India Partnership

November 10, 2022

Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania – At the 13th Clean Energy Ministerial and Global Clean Energy Action Forum held in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania from 21-23 September 2022, ITS-Davis announced the establishment of a new California-India partnership which aims to advance the research and policy implementation focus of transportation decarbonization efforts in India and California, providing an opportunity to engage policymakers globally in well-orchestrated efforts.

Revolutionary changes in transportation could slow global warming if done right

by Corporate Knights
April 05, 2022

The latest IPCC report says systemic changes under way in the sector could begin lowering its emissions footprint. But will they reduce emissions enough?

Around the world, revolutionary changes are under way in transportation. More electric vehicles are on the road, people are taking advantage of sharing mobility services such as Uber and Lyft, and the rise in telework during the COVID-19 pandemic has shifted the way people think about commuting.

New study - 100% EVs isn’t enough to meet carbon goals

by E & E News
March 07, 2022

ITS-Davis contributed to a new study which argues that electrifying vehicles isn’t by itself enough to make transportation low-carbon by midcentury. But combined with a rethinking of how cities are designed, it could. Read more here.