ZEV Transitions for California
The Energy Futures Group maintains the Transportation Transitions Model, that provides tracking and projections of car, truck and bus sales, stocks, travel and energy use for California as well as the US as a whole and various US regions. We develop specific scenarios, estimate costs, and look at energy implications of transitions. In 2021, we helped produce a major report “Driving California Vehicle Emissions to Zero”. In 2023, we published an outlook for ZEV vehicles nationwide, as well as broken down into California, ZEV policy adopting (“177”) states, and the rest of the US. During 2024 we are preparing a follow-up study for California, projecting ZEV sales and also estimating the infrastructure requirements and the costs of the transition to 100% ZEV sales by 2036, and near-100% ZEV stocks by 2050 (read more in 2024 Projects). Ongoing research with this model also supports our efforts to characterize vehicle and fuel technologies, as well as our hydrogen and low-carbon fuels analyses, described separately.
