Alan Jenn, GSR
This project builds on our 2017 project that created EV market penetration scenarios for 22 countries around the world, using sales data from 2010-2015 to calibrate three types of projection models (diffusion, regression, and choice models). The results of that study indicated it would take very strong policies to reach targets such as 100 million EVs worldwide by 2030 (a UN target). This study (already underway) updates the international data analysis and model calibration through 2017 data, and reassess future penetration potentials, also factoring in current policies and recharging infrastructure in different countries. A modest project size will allow this project to be completed in a timely fashion and produce what should be an important report.
A larger on-going STEPS+ project beginning later this year will then link these results to an analysis of bigger travel trends in various countries, the electric power generation and CO2 impacts in the specific countries, with a deeper dive analysis for two or three countries (such as US, China, and Germany or France), using the IEA MoMo Model and/or IIASA Message model to explore the impacts on grid development and marginal emissions impacts.