Joan Ogden, GSR
This project was initiated in 2018, focused on detailed development of the electric sector in the Message Model to accommodate analysis of EV grid integration and the possibilities for balancing generation via G2V and V2G strategies. The geographic focus in 2018 was Southern California, assessing the impact on reducing the “duck curve” via utilizing EV storage capacity in flattening the load. A scenario for 2020 has allowed assessment of how the potential for load management changes with increasing numbers of EV. Our initial findings suggest that by 2020 enough EVs could be in the system to allow major advantages to be achieved if the right systems were in place.
In a 2019 project, this study will be extended as follows:
Expand the Reference Energy System to incorporate detailed hydrogen infrastructure and analyze the compatibility of it in future energy systems.
Extend the modeling out to the year 2030, with endogenous capacity additions based on exogenous projections of electricity demand and modeled increases in EV-related electricity demand.
Include the costs of infrastructure required at different energy levels such as end-use level. This infrastructure capacity expansion would include charging stations, grid upgrades, vehicle upgrades, etc.
Expansion of emission mitigation scenarios for different GHG related policies
Adding freight technologies to the model: Expanding the types of vehicles in transportation sector, such as delivery trucks, buses, etc.
Incorporating Storage technologies in other sectors for compatibility analysis – such as ES and thermal storage in Residential and Commercial sectors
Calibrating the model for additional regions within CA, and explore the potential for adding regions beyond CA (within and outside the US, taking advantage of the global nature of MESSAGE).
Using the transportation model within MESSAGE to endogenize transportation projections and develop them in concert with power generation projections and scenarios.
The result will be a new analysis at the California level that takes into account both electric and hydrogen vehicles and potential for using these vehicles to help manage and optimize grid operation.