Modeling 3 Revolutions Futures


Lew Futon

Other Researchers



STEPS created an urban travel model that allows scenario development of future global shifts in patterns, technologies and fuels, and estimate their impacts on costs and CO2 emissions.  The report “Three revolutions scenarios” was produced in 2017 and work continued on costing out various mode options and “use cases” in 2018.  In 2019 a deeper analysis of hedonic costs is the next logical step, coupled with a return to full modeling of the broader set of costs of travel choices, and a probability analysis of different future scenarios. Policy implications could also be investigated.   


In this 2019 project, an analysis of monetary and hedonic costs of various trip types and mode options will be will be undertaken in the US context (probably for the SF Bay area but possibly including other regions as well). It will also be extended to other world regions as part of an international survey effort we are involved in, which should produce travel data sets for four world cities in time for analysis in this project.  


The project will provide insights into how travelers may be comparing mode options such as ride hailing, transit, micro-mobility, and driving their own cars for different types of trips. It will also explore potentially important future options (with different attributes such as prices and hedonic costs) such as driverless owned cars, driverless ride-hail cars, and shared vs solo trips.  The conclusions will provide insights into the likelihood that major shifts will occur in travel patterns in the US and other parts of the world in the 2020-2030 time frame.